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The Swedish Moderates party annihilate on opinion polls in one year

Friday, 30 September 2011
The Swedish ruling Conservatives have lost heavily in a new opinion conducted for the Swedish daily, Dagens Nyheter published on Friday.

The polls conducted by polling company,  Synovate for the paper to test the Swedish people’s feeling about the attitudes of their  political parties show that the Conservative Moderates have fared worst since the last election. Also the smaller bourgeois parties have continued with internal problems. The Christian Democrats are still under parliamentary threshold while the Liberal Party are having the lowest public opinion figure in three years.

Ever since the election, Conservatives Moderates have remained stable over the election results but the Synovate opinion polls show that things have changed. In September, the opinion measurements showed that the Moderates had 31.7 percent of the vote and were still above the figure from the parliamentary election a year ago. But compared with the August measurement, where there was a huge drop by as much as 5.2 percentage points, a statistically significant decline.

“The Moderate party fall is larger than expected. The economic crisis favoured the Conservatives initially. But then the government has come up with a budget with no big news. Therefore, the discussion about the Conservatives now appears to be that the party tired of ideas,” says Nicklas Källebring, public opinion analyst at Synovate.

As the September figure is the poorest for the Moderate party, this means that the Social Democrats now again are the largest political party in the country. The Socialists have been polled at 34.1 percent (+1.3) in the September survey noting their highest figure since April 2009.


As recently as in January, the party had only 27 percent of voters support.
Social Democrats have picked voters from both Moderates and the Green Party and have increased in small increments throughout the year. The trend is upward, according to Nicklas Källebring.

The September opinion polling is further evidence of the two major parties' current domination of the electoral structure in Sweden. All other parliamentary parties fit in a range between 3.8 and 8.3 percent.

With the change of party leadership in the Centre Party, so much of the Party and the new leader Annie Lööf have been widely reported in many media but it has led to no boost for the party.
The Centre party has certainly climbed back above 4 percent threshold and will now be 5.4 percent (+1.6) but that is a rise that is not statistically significant.

The government colleagues, the Christian Democratic Party, have had it difficult and remain below the 4 percent threshold. The weak public opinion has led to more and more Christian Democrats, recently to call for party leader Göran Hägglund's departure.

The Liberals party (Folkpartiet) have long been stable from 6 to 8 percent but is now approaching other small alliance parties falling of 5.5 percent (-2.0) in the September survey. It is the Liberals party’s worst figure since November 2008.
In the latest poll, Sweden Democrats lost heavily in support. It was interpreted as an effect of the terrorist attack on the island of Utøya in Norway and the perpetrator has expressed admiration for Sweden Democrats.
September polling implies a return to more normal levels for Sweden Democrats. The party may be at 5.1 percent (+2.2), which is statistically significant increase.

Left Party climbs back above the four percent threshold and get 4.9 percent (+1.2). The Green Party is largely quiet and gets 8.3 percent (-0.1).

Among the blocs, the position is 47.3 to 46.4 in favour of the Red-Greens in a poll in which 
Synovate conducted in September, questioning some 2685 people randomly by telephone during the period September 12 to 28.
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    The placing of the Swedish Political Parties according to latest opinion polls which the Social Democrats are the leaders. So if election were to be held today, which party would you vote for then?

    Social Democrats: 34.1 (+1.3)
    The Left Party: 4.9 (+1.2)
    The Green Party : 8.3 (-0.1)
    Sweden Democrats: 5.1 (+2.2)
    Centre Party: 5.4 (+1.6)
    Liberal Party (Folkpartiet ): 5.5 (-2.0)
    Christian Democrats: 3.8 (+0.5)
    Moderate Party: 31.7 (-5.2)