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Looks strong but feeling weak – Swedish businesses and household barometer show a rise in positive perception

Wednesday, 28 March 2012
The so-called Swedish barometric indicator, which measures the total mood and the state among businesses and households in Sweden rose firmly in March.

The institution that carries the measurement, the National institute for economic research (NIER) shows, in its latest monthly survey a tendency Indicator which amounted to 101.8 in March, compared with 93.5 in February.

"All sectors of the economy contributed positively to the development and also the results from the household sector were positive, "the NIER wrote in a statement.

The indicator has now risen by almost ten points in two months and is nearly two points above the historical average, according to NIER.

Inflation expectations for the twelve months ahead rose to 2.8 percent in March from 2.3 percent in February. Meanwhile, households 'interest rate expectations turned down both for one, two and five years' time, it continues.

NIER is now writing down their forecasts for Swedish economic growth and expect GDP to grow by 0.4 percent in 2012 and 2.5 percent 2013. In the previous forecast, issued in December, NIER calculated that growth would see 0.6 percent this year and 3.0 percent 2013.
The Institute also showed several signs of an early economic recovery:
"During the first months of the Swedish household and corporate confidence in the economy strengthened. It is one of the signs that the economy is about to turn up after a dismal autumn, "writes NIER.
However, it adds that the recovery will be slow and the repo rate, expected to be 1.5 percent in late 2012, needs to be kept low for a long time.
By team

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