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Swedish Real Estate Brokers' forecasts, from Q4 2011 to Q1 2012

Stockholm:
Tenant: 3.5%
Real estate: 0.9%
Greater Gothenburg:
Tenant: 2.4%
Real estate: 1.1%
Greater Malmö
Tenant: 1.6%
Real estate: 0.4%








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Invoking spirits to help turn price decline to prices will rise in the Swedish housing market

Wednesday, 25 January 2012
The perpetual fall in prices of Swedish real estates has to come to an end and these declines must now turn to a rise. This is the believe of Swedish real estate brokers, assessed by SBAB in its Brokerage Survey. They expect a sharp increase in demand for condominiums and houses in the first quarter.

Demand will increase sharply and the prices of condominiums and houses in metropolitan areas will turn over the first quarter. It is the view of brokers SBAB Bank surveyed in its house price prognoses.

An excess amount of 25 percent of brokers in the survey believe that how ownership will lead to rising house prices for the corresponding proportion of some 9 percent.

Best picture is seen in the Stockholm region, while prices in the Malmö area is expected to rise less partly because there lie over capacity in the areas as market drivers there, the Danes have seen their own house prices fall and the value of their currency dropped against the Swedish krona.
Hence in the Malmo region there are more vacant houses than in other parts of Swedish metropolitan areas.

Despite the growing optimism, more brokers uncertainty express pessimism about market conditions. 39 percent say that the uncertainty is very large or larger than normal.
"The uncertainty of the broker's price forecast has decreased but is still larger than normal. It is not surprising given that it is difficult to assess how the financial problems in the euro area might affect the Swedish economy and the Riksbank's actions, "says Tomas Pousette chief economist at SBAB Bank, said in a statement.

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The outcome for the fourth quarter of last year was much worse than what brokers thought according to the Swedish real estate Broker Survey of October in which price indicator was for the financial crisis levels.

When the indicator, which takes account of the broker's assessment of price, shelf life and difference between output price and market price, the result was negative showing that the situation in the market weak.

For the fourth quarter, a tenant indicator of -42 in Stockholm, -46 in Greater Gothenburg and -50 in Greater Malmö gave the proper picture. But now the brokers are giving brighter forecasts and positive indicators 9, 17 and 8 in the respective these areas for the first quarter of this year.

SBAB has also asked brokers in Stockholm abut their acceptance rates, introduced on 1 August 2011 to show how their business is affected in that way. Of the brokers who use accepted price as a measure, 21 percent said that prices were affected adversely. In the previous survey, from October last year, 33 percent said acceptance rates affect prices negatively.

"The effect of the accepted price on the sale price does not seem to have become so large. One possible interpretation is that the price is more influenced by fundamental factors such as interest rates and income, than of the sales process design, "said Tor Borg, interest rate analyst at SBAB Bank.
It should be noted that Swedish house prices are still being sold at a price level analysed as over valued and the cost of owning a house in Sweden today is too high.
By Scancomark.se Team 




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