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Global oil use grew by 1 percent

Wednesday, 09 November 2011
World oil use will climb by 1%, or 890,000 barrels a day, from a year earlier in the current quarter, to 89.42 million barrels a day, a U.S. government forecast released Tuesday projected.

That is down from growth of just over 1 million barrels a day, or 1.2%, forecast a month earlier by the Energy Information Administration in its short-term energy outlook.
Demand from China, the second-biggest oil consumer behind the U.S., will rise 4.6% in the quarter, to 10.24 million barrels a day. The expected growth of 450,000 barrels a day will account for just over half of the global rise in demand in the quarter.

Oil demand in the major industrialized nations that comprise the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will drop by 0.6%, or 270,000 barrels a day, from a year ago. A drop of 1.2%, or 230,000 barrels a day, in U.S. oil use, will account for most of the OECD decline. Of the U.S. loss, gasoline demand accounts for 210,000 barrels a day of the decline.
Non-OECD nations, led by China, will show a 1.16 million barrel-a-day, or 2.8%, rise in demand in the quarter.
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For all of 2011, global demand is expected to rise 1.3%, or 1.17 million barrels a day, to a record 88.23 million barrels a day. A 7.5%, or 690,000 barrels a day, gain in Chinese demand will lead a 1.57 million-barrel rise in non-OECD demand.
Supply uncertainty due to continued tension in the Middle East and North Africa is keeping upward pressure on prices, but a quick return of exports from post-war Libya could trim gains, the EIA said. "At the same time, downside demand risks continue as fears persist about weakening global economic growth [and] contagion effects of the debt crisis in the European Union," the EIA said.
The EIA forecasts 3% growth in global gross domestic product for 2011, unchanged from a month ago. But it lowered its 2012 forecast, to 3.1% growth from 3.5%.
World oil use in 2012 is expected to rise 1.6%, or 1.39 million barrels a day, to 89.62 million barrels a day. China's demand will rise 2.2% to 10.45 million barrels a day.
The EIA said higher output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and inventory drawdowns will be needed to supplement non-OPEC supply to meet demand. Non-OPEC output is expected to rise 700,000 barrels a day in 2011 and 800,000 barrels a day in 2012. Canada, China, Colombia, Kazakhstan and the U.S. will each post gains of more than 100,000 barrels a day, the EIA projected.
OPEC output is expected to remain flat in 2011 and 2012, at near the 2010 level of 29.76 million barrels a day. Spare OPEC output capacity will rise to 4 million barrels a day by the end of 2012 from near 3 million barrels a day now, as Libyan output increases.
Global oil inventories held by OECD member countries will drop in 2011 and 2012, the EIA said. But because of declining demand, the level of inventory cover will fall slightly. Stocks will be sufficient to hold 57.7 days of supply cover in the fourth quarter of this year, easing to 57.4 days at the end of 2012, the EIA said.
News source:  Dow Jones Newswire




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