Feeling the Swedish political pulse: Four Swedish political parties fall below parliamentary threshold


Friday, 26 August 2011
Four Swedish smaller political parties have now fallen below parliamentary threshold and if election were to be held today they will be out of the parliament.

This is the fallout of the latest opinion poll conducted by polling organisation Synovate in August. The political parties that have a lot of work to do so as to attract more votes are far right party, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, Centre Party and the Left party. These parties will be dumped out of parliament if there were an election today.

This is the first time so many parties are falling below four percent threshold at the same time, according to Synovate's analyst, Nicklas K´┐Żllebring. The biggest fall is seen with the radical far right party, Sweden Democrats, which saw support for its ideas decrease from 4.8 percent in June to 2.9 percent.

Facts: Advertisement
Synovate asked 1711 people about how they would vote if there were an election today. The measurement was conducted between August 15 to 24.
The change compared with previous measurements in parentheses.
• Moderate party 36.9% (+4.5)
• People’s party (Liberal party) 7.5% (unchanged)
• Central party 3.8% (+0.1)
• Christian Democrats 3.3% (-1.2)
• Social Democrats 32.8% (+0.8)
• The Left party  3.7% (-0.1)
• The Green party 8.4% (-1.9)
• Sweden Democrats 2.9% (-1.9)

Nicklas K´┐Żllebring thinks this could have been influenced by the effect of the terrorist attacks in Norway in July, when the Norwegian mass murderer, Anders Behring Breivik, praised the Sweden Democrat.

The governing conservative Moderate party saw its support increases sharply by 4.5 percentage points to 36.9, which may be due to its strong focus on the economy. The party is located on the same level as the months after the election, according to the measurements published in the Swedish daily Dagen Nyheter.

The large increase in the support for the Moderates party means that the governing coalition, the Alliance, has increased its lead over the opposition. It stands at 6.6 percent ahead of the Red- Green coalition on 51.5 percent against 44.9 percent for the Red-Green.

The changes in the Moderates and Sweden Democrats are the only statistically significant change.

The Social Democrats end up at 32.8 percent, and on about the same level as in May.
Party leadership exchanges may have helped but two of the parties that fall below the threshold, the Left party and the Centre party, are facing leadership contest which may have contributed to the difficulty getting a breakthrough in their campaign.
By Team

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